16/10/2026
A DECADE OF LOST OPPORTUNITY, BUT CUMBRIA’S BEST DAYS LIE AHEAD
Cumbria is facing one of the greatest economic opportunities in its modern history. But we also need to be honest about the consequences of arriving late to devolution.
Cumbria could have been a pioneer of devolution ten years ago, alongside Greater Manchester, Liverpool, the West Midlands and Tees Valley.
I voted for that opportunity and have continued to argue for a Cumbrian mayor and meaningful devolution ever since, including at times when it was not necessarily the politically easiest position for a Conservative candidate to take.
Indeed, I have previously said that even a Labour mayor would have been better for Cumbria than having no mayor at all.
The devolution proposal rejected by our Labour and Lib Dem councillors leaders a decade ago would have provided £300 million over 30 years. In today’s money, that is approximately £423 million - around £90 million more than the £333 million deal Cumbria has now accepted.
But the real cost of that decision goes far beyond the difference between the two headline figures.
Cumbria has spent the intervening decade excluded from funding, powers and investment opportunities available only to mayoral combined authorities. Even at the most recent Budget, £13 billion was made available to seven established combined authorities, while a further eleven areas shared £900 million from an infrastructure fund that Cumbria, without a mayoral authority, was unable to access.
We cannot know precisely how much investment Cumbria might have secured over those ten years, but it is clear that the cost of arriving late runs into hundreds of millions of pounds.
That lost opportunity cannot now be recovered.
I also opposed the decision to delay the mayoral election until May 2027.
The justification was that holding the mayoral and council elections together would save approximately £1 million. That is short-term thinking. The first mayor could instead have been elected in 2026 with an initial five-year term, allowing future mayoral and council elections to be aligned without leaving Cumbria without elected leadership during this crucial period.
There was also an obvious political calculation. Labour and Liberal Democrat council leaders knew that an election in 2026 would have taken place in a very different political climate.
Whatever the motivation, Cumbria is now in the extraordinary position of having a Mayoral Combined Authority but no elected mayor.
Along with Cheshire and Warrington, we are one of only two areas where a Mayoral Combined Authority has become operational before its mayor has been elected.
Significant decisions are already being made, including proposed investments of £5 million in the Workington Sports Village and £4 million connected to the Tour de France. Yet the person who will ultimately be accountable to the public for the Combined Authority’s direction has not been elected and is not present when those decisions are taken.
At precisely the moment when the Government is developing new arrangements for business-rate retention and a share of income-tax revenues, Cumbria has no elected mayor at the negotiating table.
That matters.
The established mayoral authorities have spent years building the finance teams, investment pipelines, borrowing relationships and delivery capacity needed to use these powers effectively. Cumbria’s first mayor will inherit a live organisation, existing commitments and major decisions already taken.
The Combined Authority is already receiving half of the first year’s £11 million allocation under the devolution deal. It was also provided with approximately £2 million to establish the new authority and will receive around £2.9 million a year for three years towards its running costs.
That money should be used to make sure the mayor does not begin from a standing start. But preparation must not become a substitute for democratic accountability.
My first job if I am elected as mayor would therefore be to establish exactly what has been committed, how the money has been allocated, what is working, what needs to change and what team Cumbria needs to deliver.
I would then make the immediate case to Government for a fiscal settlement built specifically for Cumbria.
The proposal to retain a share of income tax is welcome, but it will naturally have a much greater impact in large urban areas. Greater Manchester has a working population approaching two million, compared with approximately 300,000 in Cumbria.
Cumbria therefore needs a settlement that reflects the distinctive strengths of our economy.
There is a compelling case for us to retain a proportion of the VAT generated by our visitor economy. Around 20 million people visit Cumbria each year, generating an estimated £900 million in VAT receipts while placing real demands on our roads, communities, public services and infrastructure.
Real devolution cannot mean copying and pasting a Manchester or London model onto Cumbria. It must reflect our economy, our geography and our opportunities.
Business-rate retention should also be central to our settlement.
I pursued business-rate retention when I was Mayor of Copeland, but we were not selected for the pilot because we were not part of a Mayoral Combined Authority.
Cumbria is particularly well placed to benefit from retaining more of the business rates generated here. We have two globally significant anchor employers in Sellafield and BAE Systems. Sellafield is one of the largest business-rate contributors in the country, second only to Heathrow Airport.
That provides a degree of stability while creating enormous opportunities for a growth-focused economy across advanced manufacturing, defence, clean energy, tourism, food production, textiles and our rural economy.
The £8.4 billion submarine investment announced in Barrow demonstrates what can be achieved when government, industry and local partners align behind a common purpose.
Credit is due to former Conservative MP Simon Fell, who was one of the first to champion the whole-government approach that developed into Team Barrow.
Barrow has been given a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Submarine building will provide skilled and well-paid employment for decades and support tens of thousands of jobs across the wider national supply chain.
However, Team Barrow and Barrow Rising also demonstrate why Cumbria needs strong and directly accountable leadership.
Progress has been slower than many local people expected. Too much of the early promise has been held back by bureaucracy, fragmented decision-making and a lack of strategic coordination.
There is also an increasing perception that funding intended to transform Barrow’s economy is being used to compensate for shortcomings in routine local-government responsibilities. Transformational investment should not become a substitute for maintaining council assets or delivering basic public services.
A mayor should provide the strategic direction, bring partners together, remove obstacles and ensure that investment leaves a lasting economic legacy.
That legacy must reach beyond Barrow.
As mayor, I would establish a county-wide investment strategy covering housing, transport, infrastructure, connectivity and skills. It would harness Barrow’s defence-led growth while unlocking the strengths of west Cumbria, Carlisle, the Eden Valley, South Lakes, the Furness peninsula and our rural and coastal communities.
Every part of Cumbria deserves the opportunity to grow.
I am also the only candidate who has committed to introducing neither a mayoral council-tax precept nor a tourist tax.
My approach is to bring investment into Cumbria, not taxes onto Cumbrians.
I have spent years building and running businesses, creating jobs and carrying the responsibility of ensuring there was enough money in the bank to meet the payroll.
I understand that every additional cost placed on a business can affect its ability to invest, employ another person or increase someone’s wages.
As Mayor of Copeland, I balanced the books, kept council tax down, secured major investment and protected and improved frontline services. We did that without borrowing money and left the council with zero debt from my eight year tenure..
That experience taught me to respect every pound of public money and never forget that every pound spent by government first had to be earned by an individual or a business.
My priority would be to use the new powers available to the mayor to improve transport and infrastructure, help businesses grow, create good jobs and give young people more opportunities to build their futures here.
If we grow the economy successfully and retaining more locally generated tax means Cumbria has more money than it needs to deliver those priorities, local people should share in that success.
That could mean further investment in projects that generate growth. It could also mean reducing the burden on hardworking Cumbrian families by returning money to taxpayers.
The important point is that those decisions should be made in Cumbria, by people accountable to Cumbrians, rather than dictated by Whitehall.
The frustration is that Cumbria could have begun this journey ten years ago. The financial offer was better, and as one of the pioneering areas we could have shaped the future of devolution rather than joining the process at the back of the queue.
We have endured a decade of missed opportunities and lost investment.
But devolution still gives us the best opportunity in generations to modernise our economy, attract investment and ensure that more of the wealth created here benefits the people who live here.
The question now is what is being done to ensure Cumbria’s mayor can begin delivering from the first day in office.
The election date is set for 6 May 2027. However, should a general election be called before then, there would be a strong case for holding the mayoral election on the same day. That would provide Cumbria with its elected leader sooner and would almost certainly produce a substantially higher turnout.
Whatever happens, preparation cannot wait until May 2027.
I have been preparing for this opportunity since 2016. Cumbria may have arrived late, but with the right leadership, ambition and fiscal settlement, I remain convinced that our best days lie ahead.